Polls and Politicians

Some politicians will tell you they never read opinion polls. I’m not one of them. I do read the opinion polls but I treat them with caution. The reason for caution is well demonstrated by today’s poll reported in The Independent newspaper. Their pollster reports that Liberal Democrat support has increased by no less than 50% [ yes Five Zero 50 per cent ! ] since their last poll five weeks ago. According to their poll, LD support has surged form 14% to 21%. Unlikely, err well very unlikely I think. Apparently the change is partly down to methodology. As I say polls should be treated with caution!

Published by David Nuttall

Business and Political Consultant

5 thoughts on “Polls and Politicians

  1. Talking of polls David, aren’t you a bit worried about the Tories latest figures? Ok, so you have a six per cent lead. But given all the problems recently dogging Labour – Home Office, Cash for Questions (oops, sorry that was your party), cash for honours, don’t you think you should be racing ahead now? After all, in the mid 90s Labour consistently held a large lead as the last Tory Government slid into a mire of sleaze.
    Somehow I don’t see this government collapsing in quite the same way. There’s an old adage that you don’t win elections, you lose them. Well, I don’t really hold this to be true. Trust in Blair may be on the decline, but Dave will have to do more than cycle in to work to convince voters that his party are actually fit to govern. If this is the best you can do when Labour have reached their nadir then I fear for you once Brown begins to assert himself as PM.
    Incidentally, I remember John Major saying that he didn’t believe in polls right up to the 1997 election.

  2. Hi Laura, Sorry about that. You were oviously reading and noting my lack of typing ability as I was posting. Hopefully it is about right now. Anyway what do you think? I guess the LD support is probably somewhere between 14% and 21% but who knows?

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