Another Treasury Assessment

Another Monday and along comes another biased and flawed assessment full of bloodcurdling claims about what they think might happen if the UK does the sensible thing and votes to leave the EU on 23rd June.

All the ‘technocratic elite’ (who it often turns out receive funding from the EU) are banding together to say how they think it would be better if the UK stays in. The latest document which was issued yesterday claims the UK would be forced into recession, there would be a sharp rise in unemployment, the pound would fall by up to 15% and house prices would fall by 10%.

Given that the forecasts the Treasury made in the Autumn Statement had already proved to be wrong just a few weeks later by the time of the budget and given the general difficulty with anyone trying to guess what is going to happen in the future one would have thought that these uncertainties would be reflected in the forecast. Instead, instead it is all presented as a virtual certainty.

Fortunately Mr Speaker allowed an Urgent Question which gave MP’s the opportunity to question a Treasury Minister (David Gauke the Financial secretary to the Treasury) about it. the whole exchanges can be read here.

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-05-23/debates/1605231000002/UKEconomyPost-ReferendumAssessment

5 thoughts on “Another Treasury Assessment

    • Hi,

      Thank you for your comment. Just because other there are people with whom I would probably not agree with much else on supporting the leave campaign, does not make the arguments for leaving any less valid!

      David

  1. But people do tend to be judged by the allies they keep. If I was thinking the same as George Galloway, Marine Le Pen and Vladimir Putin then I might start to wonder if I had got it right !
    Especially when the huge weight of academic, cultural and institutional opinion, local and world-wide, thinks differently.
    Surely it is not sufficient to dismiss such opinion as the ‘technological elite’, or question their motives (EU funding) and say well I know better. Hunch and emotion are no substitute for facts and analysis I am afraid, especially when the security and prosperity of future generations are at stake.

  2. Ps I found these quotes interesting

    “Michael Gove, chairman of Vote Leave, said in 2011 that the IFS was a “fantastic think-tank”, and a year earlier that he had a “great respect” for the body. I read the IFS report with interest, and found its arguments thought-provoking,” Gove, now the Justice Secretary, opined five years ago’.

    Iain Duncan Smith has been just as gushing, respecting their views even when criticising his welfare reforms.“I welcome the IFS report, which was a fair one,” he said in 2011 about its critique of universal credit.In 2014, Duncan Smith cited an IFS report to damn Labour’s proposal for restricting pensions tax relief which “has been called ‘extraordinarily complex’ by the IFS and ‘unworkable’”.Five years ago, IDS pointed to the “director of the IFS” who was “pretty clear yesterday on the Opposition’s position on borrowing more to spend”.

    Priti Patel, Vote Leave spokeswoman, said in 2014 that “the IFS has said about the greatest and deepest recession we have had thus far and that work is the best route out of poverty” – justifying its welfare changes.

    Andrea Leadsom MP, Brexit spokeswoman, quoted the IFS last year to show Tory economic plans are working. She said: “The right hon. Gentleman will realise that I have just quoted Paul Johnson of the IFS. I stand by what the IFS has said, which is that, from 2010 to 2015, the average household is £900 better off.”

  3. Caught Steve Hilton on Radio 4. He made the most logical and profound statement that I have heard – all the forecasts are just that forecasts. Given that 40 years ago we joined a free trade economy look how cheap everything isn’t. Doesn’t seem to matter who is ‘in power’ there are still an elite that keep control. There is a huge problem wobbling around the UK – unsecured loans, just look at all those cars/things ‘bought’ at 200 quid a week by people who can’t afford to pay them off (it it came to hay lads hey). Put that in your forecasts. It is about democracy, at least we can vote against someone. To the Americans – the answer is simple. The E U has 3 presidents ALL are un-elected. Can you see a Yank accepting that. Britain was the biggest trading nation bar non. It’s about time WE (the people) decided what we want – VOTE OUT

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